Natural Gas Storage Report Injection Season Week 24 (Week Ending September 15, 2017)

This week’s injection of 97 Bcf was larger than the market expectation of 90 Bcf while simultaneously coming in higher than last year’s value of 54 Bcf and the five-year average of 73 Bcf. With Henry Hub now trading under $3/MMBtu, October now heads into somewhat of a “sleep mode” that reflects a trend of little to no heat matched with equally uneventful demand for the time of year. Weather-wise, the Southern and Eastern U.S. will see high 80s and 90s during the week while the West finally catches a break with more fall-like weather.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 3,408 Bcf which is within the five-year historical range. This figure is 136 Bcf (3.8%) less than this time last year and 67 Bcf (2%) above the five year average of 3,341 Bcf.

The October 2017 NYMEX Futures price started at $3.032/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since decreased to $2.979/MMBtu following the EIA report.

Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.

Finally, the graphics below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service.

Current Week’s Outlook

Future Outlook

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