Natural Gas Storage Report Injection Season Week 29 (Week Ending October 20, 2017)

Season’s first snow accumulation is upon us in the Upper Midwest. Powerful storm winds and rain will impact the East Coast causing potential power outages and flooding. Weather outlook, overall, offers colder and warmer risks to the forecast.

Friday, October 20th, marked the end of week 29 with 64 Bcf injection, 1 Bcf lower than the expectation of 65 Bcf. By comparison, 74 Bcf was injected this time last year and the five year average stands at 75 Bcf.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 3,710 Bcf. This figure is 189 Bcf (4.8%) less than this time last year and 46 Bcf (1.2%) below the five year average.

The November 2017 NYMEX Future started at $2.894/MmBTU prior to the report’s release and has since dropped to $2.883/MmBTU afterward.

Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.

Finally, the graphics below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service.

Current Week’s Outlook

Future Outlook

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