Natural Gas Storage Report Withdrawal Season Week 21 (Week Ending March 23, 2018)

The second to last week of withdrawal season saw a withdrawal of 63 Bcf. The average expectation, based on a Reuters survey, was 70 Bcf. The withdrawal was tighter than both last year’s 58 and the five-year average of 46. As far as overall storage we now have 32.7% less than last year, and a full 20% less in storage than the five-year average. While this data suggests the bulls should be ruling the market, unprecedented production is again stifling any upward momentum we might have seen. The market prior to the report sat at $2.76, with the increase over last week attributed to the prompt month change. We’ve seen a bit of bearish movement since. $2.748 was the prompt month price at the time of this report’s release.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 1,383 Bcf. This figure is 672 Bcf (32.7%) less than this time last year and 346 Bcf (20%) below the five year average.

The May 2018 NYMEX Futures price was at $2.76/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since decreased to $2.748/MMBtu.

Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.

Finally, the graphics below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service.

Current Week’s Outlook

Future Outlook

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