In potentially significant weather-related news, the 2018 Hurricane Forecast was released this week by Colorado State University. The report is calling for above average activity in the Atlantic Ocean. While an active 2017 hurricane season did little to disrupt production, we are entering this injection season with 34% less gas in storage than at this time last year. Read more on this report here.
Withdrawal season concludes with working natural gas inventories of 1,354 Bcf. This figure is 697 Bcf (34%) less than this time last year and 347 Bcf (20.4%) below the five year average.
The May 2018 NYMEX Futures price started around $2.698/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since decreased to $2.664/MMBtu.
Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:
The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.
The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:
The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.
The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.
Finally, the graphics below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service.
Current Week’s Outlook