Energy Market Update – July 29, 2019

Heating Oil

Heating oil 87

  • Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 0.78% for the week ending Friday, 7/26, as prices rose $0.0148 per gallon.
  • On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in August closed at $56.20 per barrel on Friday, 7/26, up 0.48% for the day, and up 0.78% for the week.
  • Crude oil prices were stable last week but rose on Monday, trading near $57 a barrel. The market awaited news from the U.S.-China trade talks to see if there would be any progress in their ongoing economic disputes. Investors were also slightly bullish as they anticipated a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve for the first time since 2008. The expectation is that the Fed could reduce rates by at least 25 basis points at its July 30-31 policy meeting. The Baker Hughes oil rig count fell from 779 to 776 last week, indicating decreased domestic production.

Gasoline & Diesel

Gasoline 87

  • U.S. regular gasoline prices decreased by $0.027/gallon or 0.94% from the previous week to average $2.833/gallon.
  • Gasoline prices are down $0.078/gallon from a year ago.
  • U.S. on-highway diesel fuel prices decreased by $0.007/gallon or 0.23% from the previous week to average $3.044/gallon.
  • Diesel prices are down $0.176/gallon from a year ago.

Natural Gas

Nat gas 87

  • Prompt-month natural gas futures decreased $0.082 for the week ending Friday, 7/26, to settle at $2.169/Dth.
  • Overall supply increased by 0.6 Bcf from the previous week. Total demand increased by 0.2 Bcf.
  • Natural gas exports in April 2019 were 336,321 million cubic feet, compared with 278,941 million cubic feet in April 2018. This is a 20.57% increase.
  • Net injections into storage totaled 36 Bcf, compared with the 5 year average net injections of 44 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 27 Bcf during the same week.
  • Working gas stocks total 2,569 Bcf, coming in 151 Bcf less than the five-year average and 300 Bcf more than last year at this time.

Electricity

Electricity 87

  • Average peak prices in NYC decreased last week, falling $8.24 to $32.49 per MWh.
  • Average peak prices in New Jersey’s PSE&G decreased, falling $9.81 to $25.06 per MWh.
  • Average peak prices in Central NY’s Zone C decreased, falling $8.16 to $25.94 per MWh.
  • Calendar 2020 prices in NYC decreased $0.76 per MWh, and PSE&G prices decreased $0.51 per MWh.
  • Calendar 2020 prices in Zone C decreased $0.66 per MWh.

Weather

Last Week:

Weather 86

This Week:

Weather 87

  • Temperatures in NYC averaged 1.79°F above historical figures this past week (ending 7/27), and came in 1.07°F above forecasted values. Highs for the week are expected to average around 87°F with lows averaging 72°F. Temperatures are forecasted to be 3.07°F higher than seasonal averages, and 1.29°F above last week’s average.
  • Temperatures are expected to remain high this week and come in above seasonal norms. Some rain and thunderstorms are expected towards the middle of the week but otherwise weather should be mostly sunny.  Short term forecasts show above-average temperatures in the Southwest with average temperatures elsewhere. Longer term forecast models are predicting above-average temperatures in the majority the country.

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