Natural Gas Storage Report Injection Season Week 26 (Week Ending September 29, 2017)

A developing tropical system in the western Caribbean has changed weather models to a slightly warmer direction. It is projected to make its way to the Gulf Coast.  Markets are still trending toward a warm winter.

Friday, September 29th marked the end of week 26 with 42 Bcf injection, bullish compared to the 51 Bcf expectation. By comparison, 76 Bcf was injected this time last year, and the five year average stands at 91Bcf.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 3,508 Bcf. This figure is 161 Bcf (4.4%) less than this time last year and 8 Bcf (0.2%) below the five year average.

The November 2017 NYMEX Future started at $2.995/MmBTU prior to the report’s release and has since dropped to $2.962/MmBTU afterward.

Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.

Finally, the graphics below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service.

Current Week’s Outlook

Future Outlook

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